The Views expressed here are the opinion  and only the opinion of the Designated Broker Tom Peterlin. Any information gathered and provided from resources such as the Arizona MLS is considered to be approximate in nature. It is strongly recommended that Buyer & Buyer's agent and Seller & Seller's agent to verify any & all information provided in this blog for themselves

My 93 year old mother Marie has always been ahead of her time. She believed in women standing up for themselves long before it became fashionable in the 1970's. She also believes that nothing in this world ever stays the same. True, we are still in a recession, but the sun is starting to peek out under the clouds. Housing which has always been a staple to the overall economic health of the Arizona is coming back, and it is coming back to life in a very stable and strong way. According to Michael Orr of the Cromford Report, we hit bottom in the Phoenix area housing market April 6, 2009. If all the indicators are correct, we are not likely to head back to lower housing prices in the near and forseeable future.

Sure, there is still be more bank owned and short sale property coming on the market. But the significance of their dictating the direction of the market will be lessened as we head into the summer months in the greater Phoenix area in 2009. Bank owned properties will be a factor, but it will not be "the" factor in setting pricing and market changes. Why?

Simply put, it still comes down to basic economics called supply and demand. In January 2008, the Phoenix housing market was drowning in almost 20 months of standing inventory. There was too many housing properties and not enough buyers. At the end of March 2009,  the overall housing inventory dropped significantly to 6.83 months. As of this writing today May 2, 2009 we are now at 5.2 months of housing inventory in the greater Phoenix area. Please be aware that 6 months is considered normal inventory for a healthy housing market.

What is even more significant is that at the beginning of February 2009, the greater Phoenix market was sitting on 4.3 months of bank owned properties. Today May 2009, we are now sitting on only 1.3 months worth of bank owned property. Many of those properties are experiencing 6 or more offers on them at the same time. If every dog is barking up the same tree, it's impossible for all them to capture the  same prey.

According to a statement made recently by Tom Kunz President of Century 21 International at a recent Century 21 Phoenix awards luncheon, he cited that there are over 3.7 million transactions every year in housing, no matter what the state of the economy is. Keeping this baseline in mind and the fact that the number of people moving in the United States in 2008 according  to a source quoted in Southwest Airlines Spirit  April 2009 issue was the lowest since the 1940's, there is no doubt an extreme pent up demand for housing.  As Gino Vanelli said in one of his songs from the 1970's... " People got to move..."

What probably puts an even bigger exclamation point to the overall state of the Phoenix housing market is the fact that with all these dynamic changes going on in the housing market we are heading into the busiest time of the year for housing in the Phoenix area-May through the end of August. This is the time when many people are get ready to move because they have the time and the means to relocate.

Housing like the automoblie industry creates a lot of jobs in the overall  US economy. As both housing market gets healthier, so too will the overall economy of Arizona and the greater Phoenix area. 

Mother Marie was right. Nothing ever stays the same.

Until next time,

Best wishes,

Tom Peterlin,GRI
Designated Broker/Owner
Century 21 Seago, Inc
Century 21 Quality Service Office
2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008
 Century 21 Agency Since 1982
http://www.c21seago.com
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tom@c21seago.com
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Thinking about a career in real estate, or do you know someone who is thinking about buying or selling real estate? Call Tom at (480)756-2121 x15 today.