The Views expressed here are the opinion and only the opinion of the Designated Broker Tom Peterlin. Any information gathered and provided from resources such as the Arizona MLS is considered to be approximate in nature. It is strongly recommended that Buyer & Buyer's agent and Seller & Seller's agent to verify any & all information provided in this blog for themselves

Subject: March 2009 Arizona MLS figures and change in the Phoenix Market Outlook

According to the April 1, 2009 Arizona Multiple Listings Service data the overall residential housing market at the end of March 2009 now stands at 6.83 months inventory. If you Google "what is considered to be a "normal market' in housing inventory by months", most real estate professionals and real estate writers will cite an area of 5-6 months worth of inventory.  So we are not far off to that standard.

 In addition, here is an article http://www.transworldnews.com/NewsStory.aspx?id=81483&cat=1 dated March 28, 2009 from Trans World News Business News that supports the signs of change & recovery in the Phoenix housing market. 

With mortgage rates at near historic lows, prices on homes the lowest that they have been in over 5 years, and tax incentives of up to $8,000 for 1st time home buyers, acceleration of existing housing inventory may be the order of the day. Please take note that 1st time home buyers push the housing market up. By that I mean, 1st time home buyers' purchases have a rippled effect for all housing including more expensive housing where sellers after they now have the ability to sell their homes "trade up". Their home may be worth less at today's present market value but they have the ability to buy so much more home now for a much more affordable cost. Just the mere act of securing a buyer and selling their property (because they are now more buyers in the marketplace) gives them the means to trade up.

If those factors still don't convince you the market is in the midst of a rather significant change, consider this point:

We are at the start of the spring and summer selling season, historically the busiest 5 months of the year. Despite inventory and downward pricing pressure from bank owned and short sell sellers who are still putting product onto the market, 2 things will take place: 1) buyers who become clearly frustrated with their inability to purchase housing inventory because of multiple offers at list prices start bidding up those listings which create a rise in overall housing prices and/ or, 2) these REO sellers may view this as the best time to whittle down inventory and become more receptive about upward pricing to shed existing inventory, thus lowering their overall product quantity. Most housing experts concur that housing prices will continue to drag until much of the bank owned property is eaten up which may be with us until at least the end of 2009. But the old law of supply and demand has a funny way of changing all that.

We are not out of the woods yet. But certainly, it is reasonable to acknowledge that there is some change in the market.

With real estate sales more apt to be based on local rather than national conditions, there may be real reason for optimism here in the Valley of the Sun.

This is just one man thoughts. Please share your thoughts with me at tom@c21seago.com . I would welcome your opinion.

Thank you for your consideration.

Best wishes,